1. IrvingSnodgrass - March 30, 1999 - 5:56 AM PT
March 30, 2019. You get up in the morning, dial yourself some breakfast, talk to your grandkids on the videophone and check out the news on your computer (paper? what's that?). What's in the news today? The Dow tops 100,000, President Hillary Clinton is visiting the United States of Europe, the disaster relief continues in what is left of California (it fell into the Pacific last year), and the war in the Balkans continues. Then you sit down at your computer terminal for the day's work... nobody goes to an “office” any more.
What will life be like in 20 years? What kinds of technology will be part of our daily lives? What will be in the news? What issues will be discussed in the Fray? Who will be the political leaders? What will the music be like? What will TV be like?
2. RyckNelson - March 30, 1999 - 6:03 AM PT
Ooooo, a cornucopian thread.
Or as is often the case a doomsayers thread. I prefer the former, light hearted and upbeat with just a hint of negative possibility.
This place may be a bit like a mood swing.
In twenty years I hope to have ceramic tile designs in homes that I'm building. If that's not the case then I'll still be designing for builders. New computer aided design software will be cool. I would like to colaborate on such a projetct. My design ideas incorporated into useful software. That's what I want in one year. I'll have to work up to twenty.
3. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 6:28 AM PT
I'll be 62, with only 18 more years to go til retirement. Medicare and Social Security will be in financial trouble.
4. RyckNelson - March 30, 1999 - 6:41 AM PT
We'll all have smashing IRA's and mutual funds to fall back on because the Fray will start an investment group for it's members. Who will all retire in groups to continue the debates we started twenty years earlier. We'll agree to disagree and go to Bali. Not GOA. Our massive fund will save social security and medicare from default because our altruistic streak to save all of humanity from itself.
Our fund leader and most altruistic member will be Bill Gates. He decided that to save the world means to keep the Fray think-tank going at all costs. Therefore his appropration of a billion dollars up front, start up funds will ensure the proper retirement of Fraysters.
5. ChristiPeters - March 30, 1999 - 6:57 AM PT
Hmmmm...
2019?
With any luck, I'll be dead.
6. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 7:06 AM PT
Christi, Christi, Christi
You must redirect your energy toward good things -- having fun, seeing lil-darlin grow up and have kids of her own, reading and learning. There are good things in your future, my dear.
7. AzureNW - March 30, 1999 - 7:40 AM PT
I hope I can afford a space shuttle ride by then. The view of this blue planet from space must be heartbreakingly beautiful.
8. MizPhys - March 30, 1999 - 7:40 AM PT
Same shit,different year.
9. AzureNW - March 30, 1999 - 7:43 AM PT
Bet it won't seem like the same shit as you struggle to learn yet another new phone system.
10. AzureNW - March 30, 1999 - 7:54 AM PT
Maybe I will be a teacher and an artist in 2019. Maybe I will live in South America half of the year. You never know what will happen.
11. Judithathome - March 30, 1999 - 7:59 AM PT
I hope you guys decide some great things will be happening in 2019 so I can read about them now. I have the feeling that's the only way I'll experience it because by then, I'll have Alzheimers and won't know where I am, much less when.
However, if I've lost the ability to do the New York Times crossword puzzle by then, I'll have been put out of my misery by my husband who's agreed to do the Kevorkian should that day arrive.
12. cllrdr - March 30, 1999 - 8:00 AM PT
Labor-saving devices will make housework a thing of the past. Flying cars will cut freeway congestion in half. We'll be travelling to other planets for our vacations. Cures wiull be found for AIDS and Cancer. Jean-Luc Godard will make a films for Jerry Bruckheimer that will top the box office record set by "Titanic." Bobo Fete will marry Heather Locklear in a simple ceremony attended by 10 million of their closest friends shown on pay-per-view television. 109 will be come President of Nicaragua. TrouserPilot will be elected Mayor of Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Cherry Grove, Provincetown and Key West. KurtMondaugen will take over the Spoleto Arts Festival. Elliot will elope with Max Spielberg. CalGal will acquire the entire World Wide Web for her personal use. The Diva will turn Las Vegas from a tourist trap into the most stylish vacation spot in the world. Lady Chaos and Scotus Antonovich will replace Sam and Cokie. Jade Gold will acquire Fox Broadcasting.
And Cellar Door will see out his final days attended to by a bevy of well-muscled "personal trainers."
13. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 8:07 AM PT
Azure
Ha! We just got a new phone system and it is the bane of my existance .
14. vonKreedon - March 30, 1999 - 8:07 AM PT
Global warming will cause a build up of melt water under the Ross Ice shelf, in 2017 the ice shelf breaks free of the Antartic ice cap causing the mother of all tsunamis and the permanent raising of sea level. All of the tide water cities in the world are inundated, precipitating the largest movement of humanity ever as well as the loss of much agricultural land. The question pending in 2019 is whether this disaster will unite humanity or will we socially devolve back to hunter-gathering tribes.
15. AzureNW - March 30, 1999 - 8:08 AM PT
A lot of people alive in 2019 will live to be 100 years old, you know.
16. MizPhys - March 30, 1999 - 8:08 AM PT
We will be on the brink of having cold fusion be able to feasibly meet all our energy needs. However, the NIMBY public, fueled by media misinformation, will successfully squelch all development.
17. Judithathome - March 30, 1999 - 8:10 AM PT
vonK:
Well, you count on one thing: everyone will be moaning, "Why didn't someone tell us about this before it happened?"
18. vonKreedon - March 30, 1999 - 8:11 AM PT
Oh yeah, the upper 20% of society is able to afford geriatric drugs and gene therapy that enable them to live healthy active lives into, so far, their 120s. This breeds more social discontent as the rich not only get richer, but appear to be immortal.
Man, I'm in a dark mood.
19. joezan - March 30, 1999 - 8:32 AM PT
*I.G.Y.
Standing tough under stars & stripes
We can tell
This dreams in sight
You've got to admit it
At this point in time that it's clear
The future looks bright
On that train all graphite & glitter
Undersea by rail
90 minutes from N.Y. to Paris
Well by (2019) we'll be A.O.K.
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
Get your ticket to that wheel in space
while there's time
The fix is in
You'll be a witness to that game of chance
in the sky
You know we've got to win
Here at home we'll play in the city
Powered by the sun
Perfect weather for a streamlined world
There'll be spandex jackets
One or everyone
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
On that train all graphite & glitter
Undersea by rail
90 minutes from N.Y. to Paris
(More leisure for artists everywhere)
A just machine to make big decisions
Programmed by fellows
with compassion & vision
We'll be clean when their work is done
We'll be eternally free, yes
and eternally young
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
*(Donald Fagen)
20. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 8:57 AM PT
We won't have no TV preacher
to ask how much we gave
We won't need no TV preachers
Cause by then we'll all be saved
No more fightin for our Country
No child will go hungry
We'll be smiling from the cradle to the grave.
21. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 9:04 AM PT
We'll all have lots of money
That we won't have to spend
See, you'll be given everything
When everyone's your friend
Hanging out together
In picture-perfect weather
This time round, the party never ends.
22. HCaulfield - March 30, 1999 - 9:04 AM PT
5000 channels, nothing to watch.
23. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 9:07 AM PT
Hallelujah
I can almost see it
Halelujah
Come on and go with me
Let me show you
Just How great life's gonna be
At the turn, the turn of the Century.
*Will the Circle be Unbroken, II
24. ChristiPeters - March 30, 1999 - 9:25 AM PT
Yea, right. and we'll finally achieve Peace on Earth, Goodwill to all.
Every child will be a wanted child, every parent a parent who takes parenting seriously and is fully prepared both emotionally and intellectually to fulfill the role of raising the future.
Every child will reach their full potential, growing up in a home where they are neither squelched nor pushed, spoiled nor deprived. Loved, treasured, and nurtured, the world will be at their fingertips, and they can follow any career path or spiritual path they wish.
The children of our world will be taught by teachers who are respected as having one of the most important jobs in society. The teachers will all be educated to the highest levels, be dedicated, honest, and effective leaders, and receive pay commesurate with their high calling. With class sizes of ten or less, each child will receive the attention necessary to blossom on their own terms with their individual learning styles all accomodated and maximised.
All of the variety of humanity in race, creed, sexual orientation, gender, physical gifts and variations will be allowed full acceptance and freedom in society. Differences will be treasured, appreciated and applauded.
(Oh yeah, and I'm slim, beautiful, a genius, multi-talented, and independantly wealthy)
25. taust1 - March 30, 1999 - 9:36 AM PT
ChristiPeters #24 I can't work out whether you are the future, a dream or a fantasy?
26. MizPhys - March 30, 1999 - 9:38 AM PT
She's having a fantastic dream about the future.
27. msivorytower - March 30, 1999 - 10:12 AM PT
Well, I can't get too worked up about what is around the corner just two decades ahead. Had this thread asked about 50 years into the future, I might be able to develop some fantastic scenarios, but not for so short a time span.
I'll be in my mid-sixties, and I fully intend to still be working full-time, active, enjoying all the amenities and new devices developed to tempt me to part from my hard-earned cash, and expecting to live a much longer life than those who crossed the century threshold as adults 100 years past.
I don't expect many world problems to have been solved, nor do I expect much improvement in social conditions here in the US. I do expect our country will be much more hetrogeneous than it is even today, and that we might even have a Latino- or Asian-American Vice President, by then.
I expect at least one major recession to have taken place before 2019, and for one major war to have occurred involving a new generation of young Americans. It's possible that our current dilemma in the Balkans will even be that albatross.
28. BunEBear - March 30, 1999 - 11:23 AM PT
20 years from today I will be celebrating my 60'th birthday (if I make that long).
Fusion power will be just 30 years away (as it has always been).
I will perhaps go through one or two more career changes.
About 20 years ago I was taking my first computer course, in which we used punch cards to write FortranIV programs. I suspect that 20 years from now, interactions with computers will be an equally different experience.
29. AzureNW - March 30, 1999 - 11:34 AM PT
Happy birthday, BunEBear!
30. AzureNW - March 30, 1999 - 11:51 AM PT
I can't help looking forward to all the new science and technology that will emerge in the next 20 years.
20 years from now, salmon stocks in the Pacific Northwest may be well on their way to recovery. Communications may have advanced so much worldwide that there is no way to keep Taliban women isolated.
31. uzmakk - March 30, 1999 - 12:24 PM PT
Bubba..Message #23:
Had that song in mind as I was taking a leisurely scroll down the thread.
32. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 12:32 PM PT
Uzmakk
Great minds think alike.
And so do we.
33. benear - March 30, 1999 - 12:37 PM PT
We will all live in trailer houses and have Big Hair. Our life goal will be to be a guest on Jerry Springer.
34. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 12:40 PM PT
benear
I don't see how that's any different than now, at least for me.
35. TheDiva - March 30, 1999 - 12:42 PM PT
Happy birthday, BunE!
I hope that in 20 years we will have cured cancer, the common cold, and heart disease (among other things).
I hope that we'll live in a socially just society.
The Yankees will have won their 21st consecutive World Series.
My daughter will win the Nobel Prize in BioTechnology.
36. benear - March 30, 1999 - 12:43 PM PT
Now, only 40% of the U.S. population falls into this catagory. In 2019, 99.99998% of the U.S. population will fall into this catagory.
37. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 12:44 PM PT
Hot Damn!
I'm finally on the cutting edge -- a trend leader.
38. msivorytower - March 30, 1999 - 12:49 PM PT
BunEBear
Happy Birthday. I fully expect you to be around for your 60th, as well.
Yes, at least one career change is very probable for most of us, and computer technology is the one area I expect to see big changes, what will continued minaturization bring us? Most likely portable books on very small disks will be everywhere, as will voice operated personal computers. I will probably be the first in line to by a wrist watch that is also a personal organizer (voice activated) and data retriever (online connection via cellular technology). Now that will be cool.
Imagine calling up the data you need with the flick of your wrist and a simple command?
39. TheDiva - March 30, 1999 - 12:50 PM PT
I've always wanted one of those shoe phones that Agent 86 had.
But I hope that nice, big, thick, heavy, well-bound, well-written novels will still be around.
40. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 12:52 PM PT
And buxom women will be all the rage.
41. TheDiva - March 30, 1999 - 12:54 PM PT
Yeah!
Travel ought to be easier, and faster. Maybe the roads will be safer because cars will be preprogrammed for their destinations and operate on autopilot, with force fields and warning signals against collision or adverse driving conditions.
42. bubbaette - March 30, 1999 - 12:57 PM PT
But I don't want it to be easier for people to get in touch with me -- my phone rings too much as it is. Does that make me a luddite?
43. TheDiva - March 30, 1999 - 1:01 PM PT
No, I don't think so. You're not resisting progress, just the loss of your privacy.
And I REALLY hope that telemarketing will be illegal.
44. AuNaturel - March 30, 1999 - 1:10 PM PT
"And buxom women will be all the rage."
You've been brain washed by the mythology of the fashion industry. Being buxom is only a disadvantage among pedaphiles.
45. davidtudor - March 30, 1999 - 1:26 PM PT
One thing for sure - telecommunication (or whatever it is then called) will be both virtually instantaneous and very personalized.
What a great thing that will be.
Only hope that the obvious opportunity for abuse (for instance, it seems obvious that each of us will get some sort of personal id which is ours alone. Which of course raises the specter of Big Brother devices, etc.) are curbed.
46. ChristinO - March 30, 1999 - 1:27 PM PT
I don't know what I'm gonna be doing in two weeks much less 20 years.
47. ChristinO - March 30, 1999 - 1:28 PM PT
Happy Happy BunEBear!!
48. chloel - March 30, 1999 - 1:47 PM PT
Running out of cheap oil...
49. CharlieL - March 30, 1999 - 1:51 PM PT
"Being buxom is only a disadvantage among pedaphiles."
Aren't "pedaphiles" people who like feet? I think you meant "pedophiles."
Anyway, life in 20 years will be exactly as it is now, except all of us will want even more to take a nap in the afternoon.
50. CharlieL - March 30, 1999 - 1:52 PM PT
I think I just had another "senior moment."
51. demurrer - March 30, 1999 - 1:52 PM PT
Access to the Fray will require the Pentium LXII cerebral implant. Keyboards will be extinct, but the technical glitches will survive.
52. harper - March 30, 1999 - 2:09 PM PT
In 2019 I probably won't give a shit. Maybe I will have found a cute little stud muffin to keep me happy (and young). I will be a rich and famous author who travels all over the world (with said stud muffin).
The various factions in the Balkans will still be fighting each other, but no one will care. The various factions in Ireland will be doing the same, but the Brits won't care and will leave them alone to duke it out.
We will have had at least one female President. DC will finally get representation in Congress.
And there still won't be anything on TV but sitcoms. It will cost $20 apiece to go to the movies and still won't be worth it. Clint, Arnold, Bruce, Sly, et al will still be making action movies, but they'll be listed as "horror."
Susan Lucci will win a daytime Emmy. And Jim Carrey and Demi Moore will win Oscars.
53. HCaulfield - March 30, 1999 - 2:31 PM PT
demurrer -- Not to worry, Windows 1900 will meet all your needs.
54. DaveCook - March 30, 1999 - 3:12 PM PT
I just hope these goddamn punk kids stop piercing their faces (and worse) by then. It makes me sick.
55. KurtMondaugen - March 30, 1999 - 3:15 PM PT
Mr. Cook:
I hear amputations are going to be the next big fashion 'thing'. Implants are becoming tres gauche.
56. BobaFett - March 30, 1999 - 3:32 PM PT
Two words:
Orgamatron 2000
'Nuff said.
57. BobaFett - March 30, 1999 - 3:32 PM PT
Orgasmatron, I meant.
58. BobaFett - March 30, 1999 - 3:36 PM PT
A couple of notes:
Kahn, Kirk's nemesis, was a product of "late twentieth century genetic engineering" and left the earth in a space capsule in 1996.
HAL from 2001 became self-aware in 1994, I believe. (Sometime in the early nineties; please correct me if I'm in error.)
I agree with whoever said that Fusion power will still be thirty years away in 2019, just like it is now. And domed cities and flyin' space cars will come thirty years after that.
Depressing.
When I was a kid, I really thought we'd have them damn flyin' space cars by now.
59. hashke - March 30, 1999 - 4:04 PM PT
CharlieL:
Message #49 and Message #50
It is not a 'nap' but a 'siesta, and not a 'senior' moment, but a 'señor' moment.
60. HCaulfield - March 30, 1999 - 5:04 PM PT
HAL
61. BobaFett - March 30, 1999 - 5:31 PM PT
H:
Thank you. So Kahn is 1996, HAL is 1997.
I wonder how they're keeping this stuff secret.
62. cllrdr - March 30, 1999 - 6:28 PM PT
Bobo -- are your thinking of the orgasmatron that Jane Fonda used in "Barbarella"? If so, I'm all for it.
63. BobaFett - March 30, 1999 - 6:31 PM PT
Cellar:
No, I'm thinking of the Orgasmatron from Woody Allen's "Sleeper."
64. cllrdr - March 30, 1999 - 6:37 PM PT
Ah!
or rather, Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!
65. BobaFett - March 30, 1999 - 6:42 PM PT
In Sleeper, they also had a "pleasure orb."
The Orgasmatron was a booth you went into to "perform intercourse." ("Perform intercourse? I don't know if I'm up to a performance. Maybe we could rehearse for a while." AND "I don't know about going in there. During sex I like to know that all the moving parts are mine.")
66. RyckNelson - March 30, 1999 - 8:05 PM PT
Bun E Bear,
I hope you're the same Bear I read on IRC and that you've had a wonderful birthday. Happy Day!!!
Buxom woman ARE the rage and they should be in twenty years too.
67. wpeak1 - March 31, 1999 - 1:16 AM PT
One things for sure, in 2019 the music the kids will be playing will be to damn loud!
68. MizPhys - March 31, 1999 - 4:12 AM PT
Retina scans will be a common method of verifying identification.
69. benear - March 31, 1999 - 5:42 AM PT
Dateline: March 31, 2019. Today TimeWarnerMicroSoftCocaColaIBMLockheedMartin announced a merger with Russia. The announcement comes on the heels of yesterday's announcement by SonyDaimlerCryslerCitigroup that they were buying South America. TWMSCCIBMLM spokesperson Monica Lewinsky stated the impending merger with Russia, "Capitalizes on our brand recognition and positions the new company for competition in the twenty second century." Analysts expect the new merger to result in layoffs of over two million. There is also speculation that TWMSCCIBMLM will be required by regulators to divest itself of Tolstoy and the Cyrillic alphabet. News of the impending merger sent the stocks on the NYSEHengSeng surging to record highs. In a related story, The People's Corporation of China denied rumors it was a takeover target because performance in the first quarter did not meet analysts expectations.
70. Msivorytower - March 31, 1999 - 6:15 AM PT
Oh please.
We're only talking about two decades ahead. Jaysus, you'd think we were in the middle of a science fiction novel.
71. taust1 - March 31, 1999 - 6:46 AM PT
Misphys Re #24 and your #26 I wish I'd couldve said it that way.
There must be a 50/50 chance that the President in 2019 is active in politics now. Anybody like to put up some candidates ? Slate could keep them archived and some of us could see who was right? just like a time capsule.
72. IrvingSnodgrass - March 31, 1999 - 6:50 AM PT
A lot can happen in 20 years. Let's go the other direction, and look at 20 years ago (March 31, 1979):
- Personal computers had yet to make their mark, and were dismissed by many "experts." The internet was almost non-existent except among a few academics, and was unknown to most people.
- Cable TV was just beginning to be a presence. Most people had only 3 networks to choose from.
- Fax machines were unknown.
- Video machines were expensive and rare. Pre-recorded videotapes, with a tiny selection available cost about $100 each.
- If you wanted to hear music, you had a choice of vinyl discs or cassette tapes.
- Politically, the world was quite different. The USSR was a major force, and would remain so for another 10 years. There were still a number of colonies around the world, and Rhodesia was ruled by whites. Germany was two countries, and Yugoslavia was one (and at peace).
- The US president was Jimmy Carter. Ronald Reagan was not taken as a serious political force yet.
- The Iranian revolution had occurred the previous month. The US hostages would be taken in 9 months.
On the other hand, some things never change:
- The NY Yankees were the reigning world champions.
73. Msivorytower - March 31, 1999 - 6:54 AM PT
Yes, Irving, technology related things can change rapidly, but the notion that national boundries would fall away, that corporations will create "one global country" is absurd.
74. Msivorytower - March 31, 1999 - 6:55 AM PT
That national boundries will be obliterated by economic relations, that is.....
75. IrvingSnodgrass - March 31, 1999 - 7:02 AM PT
Msit:
I agree that it's extremely unlikely. Otoh, I'd like to encourage all who post here to let their imaginations soar. Who knows what will happen in 20 years. All we're doing is making guesses. There's a good chance that all the guesses will be wrong.
76. Adrianne - March 31, 1999 - 7:02 AM PT
ON PREDICTIONS (From Time Magazine)
"640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981
"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home." Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
"Everything that can be invented has been invented." Charles Duell, head of the US Patent Office, 1899.
"I think there is a world market for about five computers." - Thomas Watson, President of IBM, 1943
77. TheDiva - March 31, 1999 - 7:05 AM PT
"On the other hand, some things never change:
- The NY Yankees were the reigning world champions."
BWAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AND ALWAYS WILL BE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
78. Msivorytower - March 31, 1999 - 7:12 AM PT
Irving
"There's a good chance that all the guesses will be wrong."
Oh, I disagree, particularly wrt the technology related products. I think MisPhys's prediction is likely, at least wrt certain populations, and any predictions regarding computers, voice activated stuff, and even communications are all likely to be in place.
I just don't think the predictions regarding the obliteration of national boundries and economies will be at all likely within 20 years. 100 years ahead is possible, however.
79. bubbaette - March 31, 1999 - 7:16 AM PT
All our banking, health records, educational credentials and other identifying information will be contained on a credit-card-sized card that we will carry around with us at all times. They will also be issued to children so the data can be collected from an early age.
I'm with Diva that telemarketing calls will be illegal (assuming our legislatures can summon up some backbone.)
80. OhioSTOPAS - March 31, 1999 - 7:30 AM PT
Re Message #77:
Oh yeah?? Wait 'til 2020!!
81. benear - March 31, 1999 - 7:40 AM PT
My prediction, and you can take this one to the bank, in 2019 Ms IT still won't have a sense of humor.
82. TheDiva - March 31, 1999 - 7:44 AM PT
Message #80
Help! I'm being followed by a delusional Red Sox fan!
83. bubbaette - March 31, 1999 - 7:45 AM PT
yes she does, it's a dry sense of humor.
84. TheDiva - March 31, 1999 - 7:47 AM PT
The Ms. can be hysterically funny when she chooses to be.
85. HCaulfield - March 31, 1999 - 7:51 AM PT
Per Moore's Law, your PC will have a 16 GHz CPU, a 250 MB hard drive, and 2 GB of RAM. It will cost $5. The operating system will be free. Oops! There already is a free OS. (Still waiting for that Linux thread, Irv.)
86. IrvingSnodgrass - March 31, 1999 - 7:59 AM PT
HC:
Don't you mean a 250 GB hard drive?
As for the Linux thread, I'm waiting for the outpouring of interest.
87. benear - March 31, 1999 - 7:59 AM PT
I haven't been around long enough to know you guys. But how could anyone not know that #69 was a joke? My apologies to Madame IT, but I wasn't at all serious. She seems to be.
88. msivorytower - March 31, 1999 - 8:19 AM PT
Monsieur benear
The post appeared to be both unserious and serious. I saw black helicopters as i read it. Do you belong to one of the Militias?
You know, nothing is more ridiculous than the spin about corporations buying other countries, and that we will all become one big happy family in the near future.
I can get absurd as much as the next person, but my basic rationality cannot make 20 years into the future the equivalent of 100 years.
89. benear - March 31, 1999 - 8:27 AM PT
Sorry to disappoint, but I am one of those left-wing liberals that believes the government, for the most part, is a good thing. I only exclude the Department of Energy because of first hand knowledge of what a screwed-up wasteful entity it is.
I now see, how you could have read some of #69 as serious. It is possible that at some point in the future, Monica will become a corporate spokesperson.
90. msivorytower - March 31, 1999 - 8:47 AM PT
Monsieur,
You couldn't disappoint, I have no expectations.
However, a fundamental MIS-trust of corportations, and the old mantra that all business is evil did peek through in your posts, and THAT is what I took seriously.
I am considered liberal by many, Fett thinks me a raving pinko, but really, I cannot get worked up about how the big bad corporations are going to own us all in the future.
91. benear - March 31, 1999 - 8:57 AM PT
Madame, Just got my American Express bill. YIPES! I'd have to say the big bad corporations own me right now.
Seriously, you misread my post. I do not fear the big bad corporations. Nor do I fear the big bad government. Both, however, have their excesses. I was lampooning both. As for Fett's opinion of you, I consider the source. He, Niner and Elliot just now overwhelmed the movie thread with yet another gross display of juvenialia.
92. DocBrown - April 5, 1999 - 6:14 AM PT
Before this thread gets its RIP, I want to say something about artificial intelligence in the next twenty years.
By 2019 we will have computers with a form of awareness that might be classified as consciousness. They will be able to observe and undertand their surroundings in real time.
This ability will change the workforce very rapidly. By 2015 there will be far fewer humans employed as telemarketers, receptionists, secretaries, cashiers and lower level healthcare employees. Soon afterwards, machines will begin to displace higher level human workers, like nurses and truck drivers.
By 2019 you will be able to purchase a high-end automobile that can operate without a driver. Within five years of that; all automobiles will be able to operate without drivers. Once we've gotten humans out from behind the wheel we will be able to increase speed limits to well over 100 MPH.
93. MizPhys - April 5, 1999 - 8:09 AM PT
Yeah, right Doc. And the people who are now the technical staff at Slate will operate this automated highway system.
94. bubbaette - April 5, 1999 - 8:10 AM PT
I think I'll walk.
95. vonKreedon - April 5, 1999 - 8:17 AM PT
Doc said, "By 2019 we will have computers with a form of awareness that might be classified as consciousness. They will be able to observe and undertand their surroundings in real time."
I quibble with the "understand their surroundings" portion of this statement. I agree that they will be able to perform a high level analysis of their surroundings, but I doubt that they will acheive an understanding. That is to say, machines may acheive a Turing level of consciousness, but they will still be far from assigning independent meaning to the world.
96. DocBrown - April 5, 1999 - 9:36 AM PT
VonKreedon, if you have a good definition of the word "understand" then feel free to supply it.
As far as I am concerned, here are some examples of machine "understanding" that would be commercially useful:
Using a video camera, a computer watches hospital patients eat, drink, and sleep. The computer "understands" that as food enters the patient's mouth it get eaten. Thus it "knows" the amounts of protien, carbohydrates, vitamins, and medications that the patient has received.
Also using a video camera, a computer drives a forklift in a warehouse. It "knows" the locations and quantities of inventory in the warehouse. It also "understands" that putting more stock in the warehouse adds to the inventory and removing stock subtracts from inventory.
Using speech recognition software, a computer converses with customers about service related issues. This could be in person or over the telephone. The conversations could be free form, and the computer "understands" the customer's complaints well enough to fill out the same survey form a human would use.
Is this very different from the "assigning independent meaning" (whatever that is) which you attribute to humans?
97. Jenerator - April 5, 1999 - 9:57 AM PT
I hope all forms of laser surgery for vision is perfected in the next 20 years.
98. DanDillon - April 5, 1999 - 3:05 PM PT
"I hope all forms of laser surgery for vision is perfected in the next 20 years."
Subject-verb agreement really isn't asking all that much, is it?
99. Jenerator - April 5, 1999 - 3:16 PM PT
Dan,
Is we out of things to do this afternoon?;-)
100. marshame - April 5, 1999 - 3:34 PM PT
Linux thread
Are you talking the car or the watch?
101. DanDillon - April 5, 1999 - 6:36 PM PT
;-) yourself.
102. Greystoke - April 5, 1999 - 6:52 PM PT
Doc
"Within five years of that; all automobiles will be able to operate without drivers."
So I'll be able to drink as much beer as I want while driving? No more saying the alphabet backwards or doing a high wire routine on the white line? The future looks bright to me.
103. lemwalker - April 5, 1999 - 7:05 PM PT
I will probably be dead by then. At least will have reached three score and ten. So I really don't give a shit and probably wont be able to then. Probably not have keyboards then. Wear a little headband to connect with. Boss will know if you really have to piss or not. Eden is closed it can't possibly get any better.
104. chloel - April 5, 1999 - 8:23 PM PT
Well, an issue or two back the Linux Journal described a car actually driven - realtime on real roads - by a Linux-based system. In Italy, I think.
Scared the heck out of me - Italian driver's drivers...
105. resonance - April 5, 1999 - 9:39 PM PT
Some guesses :
Technology will be available to have 'smart' houses in which appliances, lighting, heating and safety are assisted by microchip. Twisted pair phone line will be about halfway phased out in information-age societies, and communication will run either through coax or (preferably) fiberoptic. A single industrial-strength computer will handle media and communication input and output, and 'personal computing' will probably run off a terminal linked to both the home system and a large local mainframe. The Sun approach to computer technology (i.e. computing power and common data storage being centralized and these central points being maintained by technicians) will be fairly popular. Having a truly 'personal' computer that will provide the same sort of performance as that which most people get from their terminals will be a status symbol and sometimes a hallmark of paranoia.
Private, parallel webs run by private companies will appear. These, too, will be hideously expensive, probably perform very well, and in any case will be exclusive. Instead of typing, we will speak, see, and hear representations of each other. The corporation which first makes it cost-efficient to provide massive bandwidth (say, routine transfer speeds from a hundred gigabytes to ten terabytes) will be the next Microsoft, and will probably be socialized if not strictly regulated.
The environment will be in very bad shape, but will be stabilized and improving. About half the known kinds of cancer will have been cured, and there will be tentative cures for many other genetic and infectious illnesses, but that will be irrelevant to the four-fifths of the world's population who will have the highest rates of these diseases, because the cures for most of these will be too expensive.
106. resonance - April 5, 1999 - 9:41 PM PT
Only acute, pandemic illneses like new flus, and maybe other viral diseases like dengue or lassa, will have cost effective cures, and these cures will only be cost-effective because they will be subsidized by governments. Genetic rejuvenation and improvement will be available, and what's more, it will be much more potent than many people imagine.
The social sciences will be heavily split, and largely compromised by hard science. The next twenty years of neurological research will totally change the way in which the enlightened West views the mind and philosophy. Much of what passes for psychological knowledge today (notably pop psych) will be viewed with disdain and even horror.
Chip implants (ID, maybe some communications) will be available. (I will have one). Information links -- instantaneous access to information -- will be miniaturized and available, perhaps as implants, more likely as something like an earring or a hearing aid. This will change personal interaction profoundly (imagine if you could Yahoo-search for the personal data on the person you're talking to or instantly acquire shorthand knowledge of whatever you were discussing in a cocktail-hour conversation). Firms which study personal information and interpret it will be commonplace -- i.e. examine someone's credit transactions, their phone bills, their purchasing, their insurance analyses, their police records, their vacationing habits, their hobbies, their financial status, the hours at which they are most informationally active (which means more or less when they work and when they're awake) and who they spend time with.
The Yankees will play for Mexico City or maybe Halifax. And they will still be thugs and fixers. Steinbrenner will still own them, in partnership with the Queen of England.
107. resonance - April 5, 1999 - 9:41 PM PT
Symbiotic organisms will be a part of modern medicine, as will be vat tissue and organs. We will have crude methods to boost intelligence and competence at the expense perhaps of lifespan, happiness, and maybe even sanity. Legislation granting people DNA rights will be passed as more and more available samples are collected in a manner in which the owner can be identified, but the laws will be bitterly contested by pharmaceutical companies.
Nudity will be commonplace on television. The FCC and the MPAA will be dramatically changed.
We will have more than two parties in Washington. We will have had a female president, and to everyone's enduring surprise, she will be more or less indistinguishable from a male president save for the artificial attentions of the media and in the opinions of varying bigots. She will probably have somewhat of a conservative bent and Niner will find her extremely sexually attractive and repeatedly claim that she's not just another middle-of-the-road conservative of convenience, but she will be.
Marijuana, hashish, psilocybin, some mild narcotics and stimulants will be legalized. The standard of living in Kentucky will drop like a rock, even though its on-paper earnings will skyrocket. The generated tax income for the nation will be less than anticipated but still substantial.
In the Fray, we will discuss religion, politics, movies and music, social issues, and sex.
108. AzureNW - April 5, 1999 - 9:49 PM PT
chloel: #104
hahahaha!
109. marjoribanks - April 5, 1999 - 9:58 PM PT
Very good stuff Resonance, I buy almost all of it but you blew the scenario with the Yankees dig.
110. Slackjaw - April 5, 1999 - 10:34 PM PT
There'll still be two parties in DC. Countries with first-past-the-post elections in single-member districts always have two parties. A little regularity known as Duverger's Law. Don't know about the identities of these parties, but I'll take long odds that there are two of them.
Forecasts of pundits on subjects from GDP growth 2 quarters into the future, to student performance in school, college and graduate school, to elections, recidivism of convicts, weather patterns, disease contraction, etc., will *still* be worse than a simple weighted average of a few easily observed variables, with the weights calibrated by historical data.
111. Slackjaw - April 5, 1999 - 10:41 PM PT
I should say, two "major" parties
112. resonance - April 5, 1999 - 11:37 PM PT
The mean Yankees TPF count will more or less be the same (TPF= teeth per fan). As a matter of fact, this mean will hover exactly at pi, which will feed conspiracy theories the world over. With the Queen's money, they will continue to win games like no one's business.
Roger Clemens will come out of retirement due to RNA therapy and win twenty two games in 2019. He will still be one of the most talented pitchers in the game, I will still root for him, and he will still be an asshole.
Diva and Marj, driven mad by the loss of their ballclub, will eventually buy the Pittsburgh Pirates, move them to New York, make them wear blue pinstripes, and change their name to the New York Spankees. After a few lobotomies and abrupt cranial trauma occur during practice, suitable steriods are placed in the Gatorade, mouthwash, soap, deodorant, and razors are banned from the lockerroom, and all the players are taught the finer points of mugging, rolling drunks, and statutory rape, they will actually spiritually *become* the New York Yankees. The fans (half of whom will not understand the difference) will be ecstatic.
The income will allow Marj and Diva to eventually buy Slate from Microsoft. Slate will be a lot more fun and a lot more interesting then, but the subtle, fetid reek of Yankee baseball will always hover over the site, and right-thinking people the world over will hesitate before buying a subscription to a site run by Yankee money. Salon (who will have bought the Tribe) will skyrocket in value and will be big enough to have no fewer than fifty-eight different threads founded by Slate refugees.
113. resonance - April 6, 1999 - 12:25 AM PT
Oh, yes. I think we will be pretty close to honest to god AI.
114. NickVanston - April 7, 1999 - 9:49 AM PT
Nanotechnology will have advanced to the point where you will be able to touch a website reference quoted in a newspaper or magazine, and the web page will display itself on a special page in the newspaper (or failing that, on a specially treated part of your living-room wall). California will be contemplating independence, the Spanish-speaking majority in some southern states will be clamouring for reunification with Mexico, gasoline will be taxed at a dollar per litre as an energy-conserving measure, and NATO will be agonising about intervening in Austria to save it from imminent defeat at the hands of the Greater Serbian forces.
115. vonKreedon - April 7, 1999 - 9:57 AM PT
There will be an increase in auto accidents as people attempt to do web based work on their browser sunglasses while driving to and from work (neolithic managers will still not feel "comfortable" with the idea of telecomuting workers that they can't see to manage). This will lead to an increase in research on CAD (Computer Aided Driving) and the implementation of auto-driving lanes for computer driven cars.
116. Slackjaw - April 7, 1999 - 10:06 AM PT
forget AI, I am talking extrapolation from a linear regression
117. webfeet - April 7, 1999 - 4:45 PM PT
2019?
David Duke will be president, Staten Island will finally secede forming The People's Republic of Staten Island dedicating to itself its own national hymn, Guiliani will be on late night cable talkshow; historical rapprochement with Al Sharpton will take place followed by bear hugs and weeping, Genovese will be selling Do-it Yourself liposuction kits and there will be a 1 year waiting list on the upper east side alone, self-tanner will be declared toxic after radioactive fieldmice are spotted outside the Estee Lauder company headquarters glowing in the dark, Bill Clinton will replace Bob Dole as chief spokesman for Viagra, my roommate's lizard will be dead and i will be in france, laughing.
118. AuNaturel - April 7, 1999 - 6:26 PM PT
In 2019 pot will be legal. Other nonaddictive halucingens may be legal to some extent. Addictive drugs will be largely decriminalized, with a medical approach replacing a punitive approach.
There will be as much male nudity on the screen as female nudity.
We will still be fighting over whether man is causing global warming and if it is a good idea.
Minor parties will be more important on a local/state level but not nationally.
Recreational nudity will be far more accepted in the US than it is today. Perhaps as much as it was in Europe ten years ago. Women won't have to wear tops at most beaches and there will be numerous public beaches officially declared clothing optional.
119. uzmakk - April 9, 1999 - 9:31 AM PT
Pseudoerasmus will have written a 40 page pamphlet entitled "Philosophical Uzbek" and Slackjaw will have written a 40 page pamphlet entitled "Game Theoretical Uzbek". I will travel Uzbekistan, staying in tents and cheap hotels prostelytising about the Fray, the Internet, and Cybercafes.
120. CharlieL - April 9, 1999 - 11:04 AM PT
In 2019, the "Preview message before broadcasting" box will still be highlighted as we place our musings onto SlateFrayMMMSNBCWorld.org. MicroMiloMinderbinderSoft will have determined that since Slate and the Fray will never turn a profit they must therefore be non-profit organizations and will have earned the .org distinction.
TechBoy will be TechGeezer, and still won't be able to fix anything.
121. uzmakk - April 9, 1999 - 11:46 AM PT
Chuckle, chuckle, CharlieL.
122. uzmakk - April 9, 1999 - 2:24 PM PT
All major world universities will have audiovisual links allowing the most eggheaded little pratters amongst a nation's population to verbally joust with the same from other countries. This for the enjoyment of those with enough of an intellect to enjoy such. Ofcourse this could have been done 50 years ago, but it would have become obvious to all that the average citizen is as smart as the elevated one he is watching. There will be no way to hide this fact with the advent of the internet. New systems of control will evolve. The majority of America will still be watching WWF and downloading pornography.